Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Hi, this is Siddhartha Ahluwalia. Welcome to The Neon Show. I’m your host.

Today I have with me Rajiv Sikri. He has a distinct career of 36 years with Indian Foreign Service. He retired in 2006 as Secretary in Ministry of External Affairs, a role in which he was responsible for India’s relations with Asia-Pacific region.

He has also published the book that you see behind me, Strategic Conundrums, Reshaping India’s Foreign Policy. I enjoyed reading his book on a multifaceted approach of how India’s relationship is improving or deteriorating with its neighbors, with, you know, the larger developing nations at large, and how it’s reshaping the common man’s life, you know, as we go about it. So Rajiv sir, welcome to The Neon Show.

Rajiv Sikri

Thank you. Thank you for inviting me to your show. It’s a great honor for me to have this discussion with you.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia
I want to talk about three of our neighboring countries and the current turmoil in it. First is Pakistan, second is Bangladesh and the third is Afghanistan. You can proceed in the order that you like.

Let’s just start with Pakistan and then come to Bangladesh. The history of Pakistan’s economic turmoil, unfocused approach and thereby leading to trying to put down your neighbor without your going self ahead in the race. Where is Pakistan in the current scheme of things and the background that led up to it?

Rajiv Sikri

You know, Pakistan was born under circumstances that all of us know. And like all of other neighbors of India, but more so Pakistan, it has to define itself as being not Indian.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

That’s their struggle.

Rajiv Sikri

That’s their struggle. Because there is so much which unites Pakistan and India. The border is artificial, the people are the same, the language, the customs, the culture, the habits, everything is the same or very very close. So, Pakistan first has to say it is not Indian. Then when it is not Indian, you become anti-Indian.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But not Indian, does it mean anti-Indian by any way?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, the next step from not Indian is you say you distance yourself from India. And the next step is you become anti-India because your identity depends on that. And then you come into a situation where anything which goes wrong is India. This applies to all neighbors.

But Pakistan is a special case because they have been supported by the West and now by China. They have an army which is running the country which is not running it in the interests of the people of Pakistan. And they are riding this Kashmir Tiger, they feel that Kashmir is the key issue.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

For the last 75 years.

Rajiv Sikri

Yes. So, they can’t get off this tiger. And we have seen on various occasions whether it was the 1960 Indus waters treaty or the Shimla agreement after the 71 war or the attempts.

During the period of Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi to have a cooperative relationship. Vajpayee and his bus yatra to Lahore which was followed by Kargil. Vajpayee who invited Musharraf and converted him from a CEO to the president in the Agra summit which led to was followed by the 2001 attack on parliament.

Then, you know, you have the attempts to find a solution to Siachen. So many things we have tried to work out an arrangement but it has never happened. Because there are so many players in Pakistan.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Like who are the players in Pakistan?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, the most important is the army. So, they have been since 1958 when exercising power either directly or behind the scenes.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

And what is the motive of the army?

Rajiv Sikri

The motive of the army is to feather their nest to get all the benefits. In order to get lion’s share of the resources, they must have a threat. After all, if there is no threat from India, why do they need so much weaponry?

Why do they need so many resources of the state? People will ask these questions because they are not investing in the development of the country. So, they need this threat from India.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But there is no threat from India.

Rajiv Sikri

No, there is not. But you have to create a threat.

So, you have the Kashmir as an issue which is there. Article 370 must be restored. Where is the hope of that? But they would lock themselves into a corner. The second group of people are the politicians. Now, the politicians are invariably in cahoots with the army because it is an elite political class there.

Not popularly elected in the sense that in India where leaders have a lot of genuine popularity. Some of them do. But, you know, they are always mindful of what the army thinks.

And they are playing their own games, collaborating with the army to bring down their political opponents. And sometimes when you have an unexpected leader like Imran Khan, who became genuinely popular and therefore powerful, the army got rid of him and has excluded him from politics. So, that’s the second.

The third is a judiciary which keeps playing games, you know, give bail to so and so, exonerate so and so, and so forth. And the fourth are these foreign actors. First, it was the British who played a very important role in dividing India into Pakistan and India.

Then the Americans, we’ve talked about their involving Pakistan in their alliances. And now you’ve got China, which is supposed to be their ironclad brother, sweeter than melon and honey and higher than the mountains, deeper than the sea, that friendship. And they have given Pakistan the nuclear weapons, they’ve given them the technology, the Chinese gave it to them, the Americans winked at it.

So, all these factors are there. And then the other thing is that over the last 75 years, so much poison in the minds of the Pakistanis against India. The whole system is, you know, to think of India as an enemy state, Hindus as kafirs, who must be eliminated, that kind of thing is there.

I think, however, that there are a lot of sensible Pakistanis who want to have a more normal relationship with India. Who actually look at India with a great deal of admiration. Who look at Mr. Modi with admiration, they wish we had a leader like him who’s working for the country.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Both countries got separated at the same point of time.

Rajiv Sikri

Same point of time. See where India is. Now, one of the big things which happened in India that did not happen in Pakistan was the land reforms. You know, so feudalism went away in India.

Today, there are restrictions on how much land holding can be there, and so forth. But in Pakistan, you talk to them, oh, there is a little bit of land, it’s about 100, 200 hectares. I mean, you know, which is unimaginable for anyone in India. The army in Pakistan has chunks of prime land in the major cities, they run businesses.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Army is running businesses?

Rajiv Sikri

Army is running, there’s a Fauji Foundation which is running businesses, they are producing cement and petroleum and in the construction material, and all kinds of consumer goods.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Army chiefs must be millionaires and billionaires.

Rajiv Sikri

Of course, of course. They’re very, very rich. I was talking to some Pakistani in London a few years ago, and somehow it came up, you know, how do the army officers in India live and retire? I said, you know, they live in Noida or Gurgaon or some flat, maybe somebody’s got a house.

He said, really? In our country, you know, these captains and majors and brigadiers, they have big houses. You know, you can’t imagine that anyone who’s retired as a lieutenant general in India is not a millionaire. So, that is the difference there. And even their politicians, they’re feudal. You know, huge tracts of land.

So, that feudalism in Pakistan hasn’t gone away. And that is one of the reasons for their thing. Now, in India, for whatever our weakness is, our politicians have to deliver on whether it is roads or railways or infrastructure or you know, foodstuffs. In Pakistan, they don’t do that. There is a lot of inflation there. And their economy has gone down. So, this is the problem with Pakistan.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Tourism has gone down.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah. Who visits Pakistan as a tourist? Very few people would be visiting Pakistan as a tourist. What is the image of Pakistan in the world today?

Terrorism, narcotics, you know, lack of law and order there, fundamentalism. That’s the image of Pakistan. Nuclear, brandishing the nuclear weapon. So, that does not help Pakistan. And we have tried, various leaders in India have tried to work out a good relationship with Pakistan. There have been leaps of faith, as I call it, but never worked.

So, now I think Mr. Modi’s government has decided enough is enough. We’re not going to waste our time with them. Therefore, we are saying, well, you know, the only thing to discuss with them is how to stop terror and please return us POK.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Yeah. And the thing is, whenever they attack us X, now we reply with X plus Y.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, that is also there. So, earlier they were threatening us, oh, you know, there are nuclear powers and so forth. But now I think we have said that, you know, you don’t have to use nuclear weapons and all that.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Do you think our threat from Pakistan has decreased over a period of time?

Rajiv Sikri

It will always be there. It’s not so overt now.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But in 2008, they entered our cities.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, 2008 was Mumbai. 2001 was the parliament attack. They’ve been subsequent.

Now, you see, the threat, terrorist threat from Pakistan has decreased in the valley, Kashmir valley. Well, I think we worked out a good system there. But our defenses have become weaker in the Jammu region, partly because we have had to move some of our troops from there to the Ladakh front.

After 2020, and partly also because the topography and geography of that region enables them to come across much more easily. The main road connecting Jammu with Kashmir is only a few kilometers from the border. So, it’s very easy for them to, you know, reach the road, hijack a vehicle and so forth.

Yes, we do need to improve our policing and anti-terrorist infrastructure there. This is not an excuse. I think we have done much, much better. Fortunately, we have been spared the kind of terrorist attacks on our cities that we had 10, 15, 20 years ago. But we can never be complacent. Because they’re always thinking of new ways in which to hurt us.

And the ISI is quite an efficient organization, which is geared towards, you know, trying to create trouble for India. So, yes, I think the threat from Pakistan is reduced, but it’s not over. We’ll always have to be vigilant. And for the moment, I don’t see any bright future in India-Pakistan relation.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But do you see the Pakistan economy continuously compounding downwards right now? Is there a, like, would this stabilize somewhere?

Rajiv Sikri

They’re going down. I mean, they’re always dependent on bailouts by the IMF and so forth. I think that, you know, something happens in the Gulf region, it will hurt them also a lot, because a lot of their workers are there, and they depend on them for their foreign exchange.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But the Gulf also doesn’t treat them with respect, right? In Gulf, Indians are the CIOs running their, you know, the best of offices, and Pakistanis are the cab drivers.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, yeah. I think we have a lot more white collar workers in the region. And Indians do not create trouble.

They just do their job, don’t get involved in politics or any kind of Naray Baazi which is why, you know, today there are 3.6 million Indians in the UAE, about two and a half million in Saudi Arabia, and hundreds of thousands in each of the other Gulf countries, where Indians are the largest expatriate population.

And if they are not more, it is because all these countries impose informal limits on how many people they will get from a particular country to keep a certain amount of the balance. But we have 9 million Indians in that region, that’s a lot. So we have huge stakes in that region.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Let’s come to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has its up and down relationship with India. Sometime when it got partitioned, they never acknowledge really, the role of India that played in, you know, getting it freed from Pakistan.

And whenever the armed forces have taken, you know, up in Bangladesh, they have become more Islamist in nature, as you said in your book.

Rajiv Sikri

Well, you know, the Bangladeshi identity is a dual identity.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Are they also anti-Indian by any chance? Are they also like anti-India by any chance?

Rajiv Sikri

I’ll just explain that. The first identity is the Islamic identity. Let’s not forget the Muslim League was set up in what is now Bangladesh and a big trigger for partition was the riots in Calcutta, direct action day in 1946.

So, as an Islamic country, as an Islamic people, they feel strongly about that. And also, there is, I think, the Muslims in what is now Bangladesh were generally at the lower end of the social spectrum, because the landowners and others were the Hindus. And a lot of the migrated then after partition.

That is one identity, which revealed itself in 1947 when Pakistan was born. The other identity they have is the Bengali identity, which asserted itself in 1971, when they revolted against Pakistan and Bangladesh came into being. And they’re very proud of their language, their culture, and so forth.

So, they oscillate between the Bengali and the Islamic identities. And there’s a third identity also, a Pakistani identity.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Wow, I never imagined that.

Rajiv Sikri

No, because, you know, they were Pakistanis. So, a person of my age, who’s slightly older, started off as an Indian, then became a Pakistani, then a Bangladeshi. And there are many people in Bangladesh, who, even in 1971, were opposed to the breakup of Bangladesh from Pakistan.

And they remained in that society. The Jamaat-e-Islami, which is now running the show, is a lot of pro-Pakistani elements. You see how suddenly after Sheikh Hasina was removed, the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations have blossomed.

And the army was eventually a Pakistani army. So, those people who remained behind in Bangladesh were trained in the Pakistani mould. Their thinking was that of the Pakistani. And that element remains strong in Bangladesh. So, all these multiple identities create certain complications. And today, we are seeing the resurgence once again of the Islamic identity of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh also has a feeling of helplessness, because they are surrounded on three sides by India. I mean, apart from… 98 percent. 98 percent. So, they are Bangladesh-locked. They are India-locked. But our northeast region is Bangladesh-locked. So, that interrelationship creates a mutual dependency. And in an overall regional balance, the Bangladeshis balance out India quite well.

Now, when Sheikh Hasina was in power… So, we had Sheikh Mujibur, who was assassinated, and then you had decades of army rule till the two Begums started sharing power. Anyway, the last 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s rule has been good for India, because she took a very fundamental decision that she would be sensitive to India’s security concerns.

So, all the terrorists, separatists, other troublemakers, who are fishing in the troubled waters of the northeast, she clamped down on them. And you’ve seen how in the last 15 years our northeast has developed. We have not been faced…

Now, with that as a starting point, India said, fine, you’re taking care of our security interests, we will help you in whatever way we can. And we’ve been very generous with our assistance. As a long-term strategy, we have rightly, I think, tried to interlink the economies of Bangladesh and India, whether it is transport linkages, roads, rails, maritime, or whether it is through infrastructure, oil pipelines, diesel pipelines, power plants, and power lines from India to Bangladesh.

Connectivity is much, much more. The economies are a little more integrated. Bangladesh’s garment exports have grown hugely, but they are dependent on the availability of yarn and fabric from India. We’re giving duty-free access to Bangladesh. So, all that power is available from India. So, all that has helped Bangladesh develop in Bangladesh’s interest.

This is what Sheikh Hasina did, that good relations with India, she felt, was in Bangladesh’s interest. And since our security concerns were taken care of, we said fine, we don’t mind spending money in Bangladesh. Now, that state of affairs is now under threat.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

It’s again caused by the US.

Rajiv Sikri

Well, the US seems to have been behind this.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

What was US interest in this?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, that you have to ask the Americans, but I personally think that it’s linked to what we discussed a few minutes ago, that America wants to remain number one. And they do not want any country to become a regional hegemon. Now, if India has good relations with all its neighbors, particularly big ones like Bangladesh and Pakistan, then in course of time, India will be at peace with its neighbors and can devote much more attention to the outside world.

That, in the American estimation, I think, poses a long-term threat to them. Because you know, an India which is at peace with its neighbors, large country, talented population, obviously, you will want to spread your wings there. Already, our influence in the Gulf is strong.

Our influence in Southeast Asia is growing. We have strong cultural, civilizational, people to people links. Geographically, we are in the heart of Asia.

I’ve argued in my book that we are at the intersection of five arcs, very important arcs. One is the arc of prosperity, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, going on to Korea, Japan, and so forth. The second is the arc of energy, the Gulf, Caspian Sea, Russia, Siberia, Arctic, this whole arc.

The third is the arc of communications, the Indian Ocean. We are in the heart of the Indian Ocean. We have on two fronts, both Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian three fronts.

We have open seas, and we have a presence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and now in the Lakshadweep and Minicoy, which we are developing into more bases for power protection and our defense. That’s the third arc, the arc of communications. The fourth, which is the problematic one, is the arc of instability from Myanmar up to the Mediterranean.

You’ve got so much trouble. The fifth is the arc of uncertainty to the north, where you have Nepal, Tibet, Central Asia, East Turkestan, which is there. So, you know, historically, India has prospered because we are so well located.

Geography does matter, and we can take advantage of our geography again. So, while on the one hand, we must leverage our geographical position, our disadvantage is that our current day neighbors have artificial identities. We talked about it briefly.

So, how do they reconcile their identity, their cultural civilizational identity, which is linked to India with their modern identity as nation states, which causes them to be a little distant from India. So, if a neighbor is a little distant from India, it weakens India. India will continue to grow as we have been, but it could grow much faster if our neighbors were with us.

And our neighbors also have to understand that their long-term growth and prosperity is linked to India’s. I mean, the rest of the world wants to plug into India. They see the opportunities. Why shouldn’t our neighbors want to do it?

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Yeah. So, what you are trying to say is, foreign powers who don’t want India to rise as a superpower, they are incentivizing the radical leader’s personal interests, for example, in any way, to make sure that the radicals are always against India.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, whether it is China, United States also, I mean, it is well known that they had a lot of antipathy towards Sheikh Hasina. It is very well known. Sheikh Hasina has herself talked about how the Americans, without naming the Americans, wanted a base and so on and so forth.

They…I mean, even you see today, Muhammad Yunus went to USA, he was received by President Biden, not a word about lack of democracy. I mean, what is this government doing? It is not a democratically elected government. But there is no lectures about democracy, human rights. Hindus are being butchered in Bangladesh. There is no word on that because it suits their overall interest.

So, this is a realistic view of world that we need to take. Not the world as we would like it, but the world as it is. Therefore, we have to navigate our path a bit carefully. There’s no easy path. That’s why I’ve called my book strategic conundrums.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

I want to know what changes started happening post the fall of Berlin Wall in 1989? What caused it? And what repercussions it had on India? And you tell where were you when this all happened?

Rajiv Sikri

Certainly. I was in Delhi, during the period 1989-91. And I was the joint secretary, dealing with the Soviet Union, eastern europe. So I was the first hand witness to the decline and collapse of the soviet empire, the german unification, the Berlin wall came down. And then from 1991-92 I was the joint secretary dealing with west Europe. So I had a ringside view of what was happening in Europe at that time. And before that for 4 years I was the political counselor in Moscow during the Gorbachev years. The fall of the Berlin Wall led to the reunification of Germany. Then to the collapse of the Soviet Empire and the Warsaw Pact. Russia became a very diminished country.

It was in chaos, both political and economic. And this was an opportunity for the West to have reached out to Russia, which they wanted to you know, see how they can integrate with the West. Because they felt that it was, you know, the Russians have always looked to Europe as the ideal. They wanted…They consider themselves European.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

They never associated themselves with Asia?

Rajiv Sikri

No, no. But they have a dual character. Because while the bulk of their population and their culture is oriented towards Europe, their territory is mostly in Asia, their natural resources are in Asia.

So, the Russians symbol in Tsarist times was the double-headed eagle, which is, you know, looking both East and West. Unfortunately, in the 90s, the United States was consumed by hubris. And they felt that, you know, as Francis Fukuyama said, this is the end of history.

So from 84-92 I had a virtually unbroken perspective on the end of the cold war, the demise of the Soviet Union, the reunification of Germany and the new politics.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia
Let’s talk about this. What were the events that were leading up to this event that you mentioned since 84?

Rajiv Sikri
Well, you know, the Soviet Union was unable to maintain its cohesion. The economy was doing badly. They couldn’t keep up with the arms race. And when Gorbachev came to power in 85, he decided that look I can’t do this. And he embarked on a process of internal liberalization, the kind clasness.

And externally he wanted to have a normal friendly, co-operative relationship with the west. So there were many arms control treaties that were signed at that time between Regan and Gorbachev, then later with Bush. And he was an idealist. He thought that this is you know new thinking in the nuclear age. And I think he was right. But unfortunately it didn’t work out that way. And I think the world lost a great moment of opportunity there to reset international relations in a new mold more suitable for our times.

Well, the Soviet Union’s economy was a centralized economy. And it was very inefficient, it was not innovative. They couldn’t keep up with the West, particularly when Ronald Reagan started his Star Wars program.

And it became very difficult for the Soviet Union to keep up with the USA. So, Gorbachev decided that for the sake of his country, he needed to modernize, to reform. Earlier on, also, there had been efforts under Khrushchev, under Andropov to liberalize.

But he went about it with greater determination. And the trouble is that things got out of control. And it was like a train which was running without brakes downhill, you know, runaway train.

And the crash happened. Soviet Union broke up, it was a peaceful breakup. I think the credit has to go to Gorbachev that he did not send the army to either Eastern Europe or to the republics like the Baltic republics who went away.

Now, you asked about what was the impact on India, it was huge. Because that is, you know, our economy was so dependent or linked with the Soviet Union, we were getting cheap credits from them, rupee trade was there. And this whole edifice came crashing down.

And we were also, if you recall, confronted with an economic crisis, balance of payments crisis, we had to send our gold abroad. And that is when Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh as the Finance Minister initiated the first reforms process. And we started working much more closely with the West.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

I think what also happened is, when India got its independence, Pandit Nehru started looking up to Russia more than the West. And he modeled India as a socialist economy, modeled that on based on the Soviet Union. And when Soviet Union crashed, India’s idol had crashed.

Rajiv Sikri

Yes, that is true that we had a socialist pattern of society. But let’s not also forget that Pandit Nehru first reached out to the West. He visited USA in 1949, way before he visited the Soviet Union.

But the United States wanted India as a partner, as an ally, like Pakistan became and that India was not willing to do. And they did not want to help develop our industry and so forth, which the Soviet Union was doing. We got cheap credits and rupee payment from the Soviet Union.

So let’s also not forget that the Americans did help us with their PL480 program on giving food to us when we needed it. But the main reason why we drifted closer to the Soviet Union was that the United States was acting what we thought was against our interests on key issues of our territorial integrity and sovereignty, whether it was Kashmir, they were with the Pakistanis, which joined the Cento and Seato. They were opposed to the integration of Goa, Sikkim, then Bangladesh, where they sent the 7th fleet there.

So all this created a certain problem in India-US relations. Now, the Soviet Union was a very big anchor for us politically as well as economically. And when it broke up, we had to reorient our polices… foreign policies.

And I must say that Prime Minister Narasimha Rao did that very skillfully. Our opening to USA developed. It took some while. And I think that it was really the nuclear tests of 1998, when we became a declared nuclear power, which changed the US perceptions for us… of us. Because now the United States could no longer ignore India. And our economy had also started to pick up.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

And they had opposed the nuclear tests.

Rajiv Sikri

Yes, very much, the nuclear tests. In fact, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao had made all the preparations for nuclear tests, but then these were revealed to the Americans, they got to know about it, and we shut down. So then I think Mr. Narasimha Rao briefed Vajpayee. And one of the first things that Vajpayee did when he became Prime Minister in 1998, 96 was only a few days, 98 was to have the nuclear test. Now that created trouble for us, but it also gave us some leverage. And the Americans started taking us more seriously.

And Clinton came in 2000, I think he came. And then since then, our relations have been on an ascendant path. And you see what the state of our relations with USA today, very different from what they were 25 years ago.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

I’ll also go back in history during the podcast and come to the current scenario, which is very important. Today, you mentioned that Russia and US are at war. What kind of war it is because they’re not firing weapons at each other?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, you know, the United States has been, let’s remember one thing, the only reason why the United States takes Russia seriously is because it’s a nuclear power. Because Russia today is the only country which has the capacity to inflict unacceptable damage and even destroy the United States.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Not even North Korea?

Rajiv Sikri

No

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Not even China?

Rajiv Sikri

No. Because the sophistication of the weapons, the quality of the weapons, the quantity of the weapons which nuclear weapons … .Russia has is huge, much more than the United States. And the United States recognizes it.

And over the last 20 years, the Russians have been improving these weaponry. Now, I think that it has been in the American mind and people like strategists like Zbigniew Brzezinski, who wrote a very famous book, The Grand Chessboard, they have understood that Ukraine, Russia without Ukraine cannot be a great power. So, it has been an objective of the United States for the last 25 years to somehow get Ukraine away.

Because Ukraine has no natural boundaries with Russia, the people are there. And it would become a wound for Russia. So, they have been trying in various ways.

First, they had the color revolution in 2003, didn’t work. Then they’ve been interfering. And in 2014, as you know, they had the coup, the Maidan coup, which brought a pro-West regime into power in Kyiv.

Whereas, the earlier regimes were in favor of a more amiable and cooperative relationship with Russia. So, over the last 10 years, there has been this move to weaken Russia via Ukraine. They promised Ukraine that they would join NATO.

And Putin in 2007, at a speech at the Munich Security Conference said very clearly that this is not on. But the Americans have pursued that aim. Now, it is dangerous. And why I say that they’re actually at war? Because the United States has said that they want the strategic defeat of Russia. Now, to want the strategic defeat of a nuclear power is asking for trouble.

And the Russians have said that, no, we are not going to submit to this. Why did the crisis arise? Because in 2015, there were these Minsk agreements, which promised that these breakaway Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which have a Russian-speaking population, would be given some autonomy and the cultural and linguistic rights to their people.

These, as subsequently the former French President Hollande, the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the former President of Ukraine Poroshenko said, was intended only to buy time. They never intended to implement them. That was one thing.

But I think that the key factor which tipped the scales for Russia undertaking its special operations in Ukraine, was when in November 2021, the United States and Ukraine signed a security agreement, whereby they would have a presence in the Black Sea. And that threatened the presence and cooperation with Ukraine in the Black Sea area. And that threatened the Sevastopol port of Russia.

And Russia said, look, this is unacceptable to us. The Americans said, no, we just ignored it. And as Putin said, he launched this special operation. Now you see how this war has been escalating. And the various red lines have been crossed, the tanks and the artillery, the F-16s have been deployed. And the American and NATO personnel are very much involved in operating these.

And they’ve been giving them intelligence, space-based communications and so forth. And recently, as you know, the Russians told the Americans and NATO that if you give these long range strike missiles, Storm Shadow and others to Ukraine, which will enable them to hit deep inside Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, then this would be a signal that NATO is at war with us and we will respond accordingly. So for the moment, the Americans have backed off.

And hopefully it will, you know, remain cool there. But the problem is that Ukraine is losing the war on the ground gradually, but it is losing the war on the ground. The Russians, as I see it, are determined not to stop till they have achieved their objective.

They don’t trust the West at all. And I think they are waiting for the elections in USA to be presidential elections to be over. Maybe if Trump becomes the president again, you know, there could be a deal because he has said that, you know, he wants to end this war, whereas Biden and Harris want to continue this forever.

So we are at a stalemate there as far as trying to find a solution is concerned. I don’t see any change happening towards the settlement, notwithstanding all the noises that are made onto any settlement. It’s only when the Americans are ready and the Russians are ready that there’ll be a settlement. Mr. Modi can go and talk to Putin and Zelensky and so forth and convey messages, but it has no practical impact.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

What impact does this war have on India?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, you know, the first impact was that we had our students, we had to get them out of Ukraine. Then it has had not only on India, a global impact for food and fertilizer. The fact that Russia is under sanctions means our trade with Russia is affected.

You know, we cannot send or receive money through SWIFT and other normal banking channels. But on the other hand, we have managed to get cheap oil from Russia because they couldn’t sell it in the global market. So we have been buying the oil, refining it and selling it to Europe at a profit.

Now the Russians have got a lot of money which is blocked in India and we are trying to see how we can use that or they can use that money by investing it in some projects here. Our diamond trade is in trouble, our Surat diamond cutters, because the Europeans and the Americans have said that they will…the diamonds which are coming from Russia cannot be processed and sold in the West. So since that is a big market, so there’s unemployment among our diamond cutters in Surat.

Then of course, it has created a lot of diplomatic problems for us because the Americans want us to be with them in condemning Russia and supporting Ukraine. And we have been quite careful not to do that in the way that the Americans wanted. We have been following our own line and that has displeased the Americans.

So it’s created a lot of economic, political, diplomatic problems for India and I think not just India, for the whole world. So I hope that things will settle down but it doesn’t look as if it’s going to be an easy solution.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

So, in your book you also mentioned, right? United States started triumphal and unilateral behavior post 1989, which they were successfully able to do. And you can expand more on what these two terms mean to the common man.

Rajiv Sikri

Well, I think, you know, the Americans thought that they had defeated the Soviet Union ideologically and the country had broken up. So as Francis Fukuyama said, this is the end of history, that there’s only one path forward. So you saw that how the Americans indulged in the breakup of Yugoslavia, the bombing of Serbia, you know, including the Chinese embassy.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

These are which years?

Rajiv Sikri

Serbia was 98-99 and, you know, they just ignored whatever Russia wanted and Russia was too weak. The resources of Russia were ravaged and, you know, there was no counterpoint to this United States.

So that was this unilateralism, we will intervene wherever we feel like. And you saw that later on, whether it is Afghanistan, Iraq, then subsequently Syria, Libya, now Ukraine, where they said we’ll just do whatever we want because we are the big boys, there’s nobody else to hold us back. NATO was expanded.

Earlier, I mean, the United States and Germans and the Europeans had given assurances to Soviet leaders Gorbachev and others that NATO would not be expanded one inch to the east and said maybe, okay, we might take in East Germany.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But they never mentioned Ukraine?

Rajiv Sikri

Never mentioned. No, not even the Baltic republics, not Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

This is a violation of the treaty then?

Rajiv Sikri

Understanding, not a treaty, but an agreement and understanding. And the Russians were unhappy, but they accepted the expansion of NATO to the East European countries, even the Baltic states, they said fine. But the other states of the former Soviet Union, they drew a line.

When it came to Georgia, they said no. And in 2008, they took over certain parts of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And Ukraine was a complete no.

And by the way, the Americans understood this, because the present director of the CIA, William Burns, was the ambassador to Russia in 2007, I think it was. And he sent a memo, a report back to Washington, which has been published by Wikileaks. He says that for Russia, Ukraine is a red light. It’s a big blinking red light.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Don’t poke your nose in there.

Rajiv Sikri

And this is something which is felt across the board in Russia. But that advice has been ignored. Because you know, let me …

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Which administration do you think? It was the Obama administration that started interfering in Ukraine or the Biden administration that …?

Rajiv Sikri

I think all of them were the same. George W. Bush before Obama, then after that well, Trump, he got into trouble because supposedly the Russians were helping him in the election campaign. But Biden is very anti-Russian. So it’s been a general policy. Now, the US president of the day may feel a particular way.

But then there are so many influences, actors, influential people, the so-called deep state in USA, which decides a lot of things. And I think that there is a consensus in USA, generally speaking, that Russia must be contained. However, this is a bit dangerous.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

And why do you in your book, you state that the US global dominance is under challenge now?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, there’s China, first of all, which has emerged as the number two country and is economically, technologically is challenging USA.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Ahead of US in many areas.

Rajiv Sikri

There is Russia, which is no longer the Russia of the 1990s, but a rejuvenated and more self-confident Russia. There are other players, India.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But India is too small, a 3.7 trillion dollar economy.

Rajiv Sikri

Okay. However, if you… today we are the fifth largest, 3.7 trillion. In five years, you may be 8, 7-8 trillion.

If you continue to grow at this pace, what will happen in 20 years? When we have our dream of Viksit Bharat and you’re a 20, 30 trillion dollar economy, don’t forget that this is compounding. So, then you could well be the second or the third largest economy. The Americans are not comfortable with that.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

That’s why they have Pakistan.

Rajiv Sikri

Pakistan, Bangladesh now.

Because the Americans, let’s not forget, are number one today. They want to remain number one. And they will seek to weaken anyone who is threatening that position.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

So, Americans have always been in favor of, we want to be number one and go ahead also, but we want to push other people down. Absolutely. Like anybody who’s climbing the ladder, we’ll pull them down.

Rajiv Sikri

Because they have made a mistake with China. They facilitated China’s rise, thinking that China would intervene.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

They invested in China.

Rajiv Sikri

Invested in China, helped to join the WTO and so forth. What has happened? China has become a threat to them. They don’t want India to become another threat to them. It’s a potential threat.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But how do they balance? Because China is already a threat. If they don’t help India, India anyways, because it has momentum, will reach somewhere and will not see US as an ally at some point in time, will become a threat. Then irrespective help India, so at least India and US has a common enemy called China. How do you balance that?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, this is the conundrum. You know, that’s why I called it there are no easy answers. You know.

So, yes, the China factor brings us together. Also, I think that the Americans recognize that we have a lot of talent and we have a demographic dividend. They want to attract our best minds to America, which is why a lot of our best brains go and work there. You got 5 million Indian Americans there.

But our challenge is to see how we can benefit from America. And we need America for various reasons, because they are a technology leader in many respects. They have control of the currency, dollar, the SWIFT, the stock market. You know, there are so many…

There’s the military aspects which are there. So it’s not in India’s interest to have America against us. I think, at least I believe that in order for India to rise, we must have America on our side, or at least it should not be opposed to us.

At the same time, we have to be mindful that there are areas where our interests will not converge or overlap. And therefore, we have to see how to manage those differences without losing sight of the bigger picture, the advantages we get. So we have to pick our fights with the Americans, where we feel, okay, we’ll have to give in somewhere, we’ll have to.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Now coming back to the question, US global dominance is under challenge. You mentioned China, you mentioned Russia, and third is a rising India in the 20 years.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, there are also, you know, the BRICS countries in Brazil and South Africa, not on the same scale, because India has the size and population.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But what are the other threats that let’s say tomorrow, America’s biggest fear, I believe, would be the dollar would not be the global currency anymore.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, it’s a problem. I think that the Americans have done a disservice to themselves by weaponizing the dollar, because it undermines the confidence that other countries have in the dollar. And I think just yesterday or two days ago, our external affairs minister said in United States, that it’s not that we are trying to de-dollarize. But if we cannot use the dollar for some trade and other transactions with other countries, then we have to look for alternatives.

I mean, even now, a lot of our foreign exchange reserves are in US dollars. But seeing how the United States has, I mean, this is my personal view, I don’t know if this is the government’s view, that how the United States has frozen the assets of the Russian, the sovereign funds of Russia have been frozen. You’re not allowed to do trading in dollars. So, a question naturally arises that should we put all our eggs in the dollar basket?

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Yeah. What are the other baskets available to India then?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, I think gold has become more valuable now. China is buying a lot of gold. We are, I think, doing it a little more discreetly. But you would have noticed that a few months ago, we shifted some of our gold reserves from London

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

back to India, that we had given to them during 1980.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah Yeah. So, we have to proceed a little cautious because there are no alternatives really to the dollar. The dollar market is the biggest in the world.

The euro, the pound sterling, the yen, these are there, but very small… because the size of the economy, the size of the capital markets does not match that of the US dollar. And also, so far, oil is traded in dollars.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Yeah. And I believe, especially in 21st century, what has happened is, the country which had surplus oil, they became the most powerful. For example, you quoted Russia, the rise of Russia has been due to oil, the rise of Middle East entirely has been due to oil. Why has Middle East become so powerful? And though the world is talking about climate change and the oil is limited and…

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah. No, you’re right. I think that for the next 10-15 years, at least, oil and gas will be very, very important.

All these hydrocarbons will be very important. Therefore, we need to have good relations with the oil producing countries because India has deficit in oil and gas. And that’s why our relations with the Gulf countries, Russia, Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria, all these oil producing countries are important.

There is non-conventional energy. And I think the Prime Minister has started rightly on this program of developing solar energy on a large scale, and other non-conventional sources of energy. I think it has a role to play because, you know, there are many applications where you do not need high voltage energy on tap.

You take remote areas, rural areas, where your demands are not so high. But if you can provide electricity and the pumps can run and so forth, the level of the standard of living of people increases. It’s like trying to raise the level of the ocean by a couple of centimeters.

That kind of impact is there. And we are very fortunate that we have lots of sun throughout the year, all over the country. We have a lot of space in the desert areas, in Gujarat and so forth, where solar parks can be set up.

And many big solar parks are coming up. As you know, we have set up the International Solar Alliance to work with other countries in a cooperative manner. But, you know, some of the areas where we are lagging behind is, you know, this solar panels, which we are very dependent on China, because they’re producing on a huge scale, very cheaply.

And electric vehicles, batteries, the whole battery production in the world is concentrated in China. And they have control of a lot of the rare earths and minerals which go into this production, which they are weaponizing whenever they feel it is necessary. Now, the Russians are also saying that we are going to restrict exports of some…

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

To China.

Rajiv Sikri

No, to the world or to the West in general. So, you know, this globalization has gone out of the window. So, we are looking at resilient supply chains. We don’t want to be too dependent on one country. Everyone’s realizing the dangers of being so dependent on China. So, that’s why we have India, USA, Australia, Japan, the quad working on this.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Mentioning of China, you mentioned in your book, China currently suffers from pressure cooker syndrome. What is that?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, I believe that in China, it’s a closed authoritarian society. And everyone works as they are told to work. But there are no outlets for the expression of grievances.

Now, what is the pressure cooker syndrome? In every home, certainly in Indian home, there is a pressure cooker. The housewife knows that so long as the pressure cooker steam is being released, and there is the occasional whistle, things are okay.

When the whistle stops blowing, you start worrying what’s going on. Because the pressure cooker could explode. So, in India, we have whistles all the time. So, some steam is escaping all the time. It makes for a turbulent atmosphere. But in one way, it is safe, because steam is being let off.

In China, no steam is being let off. And if there is any explosion, and there have been many explosions in China in the past, Chinese history of the 19th and 20th century is one of great upheavals and explosions.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Can you give examples?

Rajiv Sikri

Well, you had the Great Leap Forward, the 100 plus movement, the whole Chinese revolution in 1949. You had the Boxer Rebellion. You had the Taiping Rebellion in the 19th century.

So, what I mean to say is that there’s always been some rebellion. Because don’t forget that China is also a very diverse country. Yes, they may have a common language in terms of script, but otherwise, the dialects are many.

And there are people in China who do not like this strict enforcement which is there. Now, the Chinese structure is such that they have kept things under control and they try to prevent all these myriad dissidents and people who are discontented from uniting. But if that were to happen, there could be an explosion in China, I think.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But they have prevented it for a long period of time. And if they can suppress the voice of Jack Ma, who is one of the largest entrepreneurs like Mukesh Ambani of China, then they say they can do anything.

Rajiv Sikri

But don’t forget, they also had Tiananmen Square in 1989. And despite all their efforts, Tibet and East Turkestan, which they call Xinjiang, is not completely under their control. You see how they are working on Hong Kong.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Hong Kong is currently under their control.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah, now it’s come under their control. Now, can they remain like this forever? I don’t know. I hope not.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

They want Taiwan also under their control.

Rajiv Sikri

Yeah. So, I hope that the Chinese cannot continue on this. Because if they do manage to develop their economy, their technology under this authoritarian system and continue to grow as they have been, it will be a huge headache for the whole world, including India.

I mean, I don’t see that this kind of thing can carry on indefinitely, but who knows. I for one would certainly like to see a weakened China because a stronger China is not acting in our interest.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But a stronger China is in Chinese interest and till the time they keep their economy going, their people at mass wouldn’t be unhappy because everybody’s getting part of the better economy.

Rajiv Sikri

But if the economic growth is slowing down as it is now, then that creates a problem. It’s like, you know, there’s a certain expectation. Even if you take India, your generation has experienced consistent growth over the last 10, 15, 20 years.

You haven’t seen the period of the 20th century when we were a much poorer country. So, your expectation is that you would continue to grow. So, no matter what Mr. Modi does or does not do, if he falters on economic, this is no good. Similarly, in China, they have experienced very fast economic growth. People expect this to continue. If it cannot continue, then there’ll be discontent. In India, if there’s discontent, you change a government.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

In China, you cannot do that.

Rajiv Sikri

And there is dissidence even within the communist party. You see so many top leaders who have been eliminated by Xi Jinping. All that is there. It’s not an easy situation for China.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

And by pressure cooker, you are also able to say that they are continuously subjugating different races like Tibetan. There are other races, Uzbeks. So, you say that it will not be forever that you can subjugate.

Rajiv Sikri

I don’t think it can carry on forever. It may take another 5, 10, 20 years. I don’t know. But history shows that no country can remain on top forever. Every empire has collapsed. Yes. The Chinese state is an empire. The United States is an empire.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

But do you see large cracks in these empires right now? Irreparable cracks?

Rajiv Sikri

There are cracks, you know…

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

What is the biggest crack, for example, in both the nations?

Rajiv Sikri

As far as China is concerned, we have discussed that their system of governance does not make for a stable society. And I think that the Chinese growth has been very dependent on access to raw materials and markets overseas. Now, there will be competition for those resources and markets.

India is also going to compete. Other countries will also compete. If you recall that the Second World War and the First World War, it was competition for resources which led to the conflict.

So, the Chinese cannot imagine or take it for granted that they would have unrestricted access to the resources of the world.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

So, if we see in the global scheme of things, if a World War 3 were to happen, China would be alone. Nobody would come in support of China because Russia…

Rajiv Sikri

Now, the Americans have brought China and Russia much closer, which I think is a strategic mistake from an American point of view. Because American thinkers like Brzezinski and earlier others have argued that you don’t want Eurasia to be united when it becomes too strong. And it would seem to be in the interest of the United States to keep this two divided.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Where would India join if you think that happens? Because India is close to Russia ….India is closer to Russia than to the US.

Rajiv Sikri

I think that we would make up our minds depending on the situation as it evolves. Certainly, I don’t see ourselves aligning with China.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

I would like to discuss some other things in the next episode like you know, for example, Myanmar, Sri Lanka. But I want to conclude today’s episode on few things. In between so many global turmoils, where is India headed for the next 10-20 years?

Rajiv Sikri

Where is it headed? I think the first is where do we want to go? What is our goal? What is our ambition? As I’ve often argued, you must have a lofty goal. When you’re in school or college, university, a job, you want to be number one. You want to be on top. If you don’t aspire to be number one, to be on top, you will never become number one.

That is the first thing that you have to do. Number two, you have to be conscious of what are your strengths. And you must feel that you have some strengths. How to maximize your strengths and overcome your weaknesses. Now, we have under Prime Minister Modi set a goal for ourselves as a Viksit Bharat in 2047. We want to be a leading power.

It’s a goal. Unless you have a goal, then you need to work out a strategy for achieving that goal. How do you go about it? And I think one of the things that we need to focus on, we are beginning to do that now, is to build up our economic, scientific, technological, military strength. Be as self-reliant as possible. Because in times of difficulty, you can’t really depend on anyone.

I think we need to develop a lot more R&D, both the government and the private sector. We need to spend a lot more attention on education and health. Our education system is quite bad, which is why so many of our students are going abroad to study.

Our health also infrastructure needs a lot of improvement. Seen the scandals which are coming out of Calcutta and West Bengal. So, these are things. And then we need to be a socially cohesive society. And I am personally very distressed at all this. Our politicians are constantly talking about caste politics.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

We are going backwards.

Rajiv Sikri

These are things which are distressing.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

People don’t realize what made Bihar in the current bad form. It was caste politics only.

Rajiv Sikri

Exactly. And then you have your own people, your politicians who go abroad and say India is bad, India is not a democracy, please interfere in our affairs. I think it’s quite shameful that Indians should be going abroad and asking foreigners to intervene. Or you know always… Not just politicians, you have your intellectuals, your academics, journalists who go abroad and they dis India, they criticize India.

They don’t see anything good in India. I mean, how can you be proud of that? You’re not going to become a strong country by that. What are you trying to do? Do you see other countries, people, you know, going around saying, no, no, no, we are such a bad country. Now, you can argue within the country that this policy is good or bad or whatever.

And we do have very fierce debates, particularly at election time. But going abroad and doing this, inviting countries to interfere, I think it’s quite shameful. And this is not going to make us strong.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Thank you so much, sir. It’s been a very enlightening discussion with you, a very broad-based discussion on where we are today and what do we need to do. The global affairs, you have summarized it very aptly, right?

Rajiv Sikri

Thank you.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Various currents that are flowing, you know, globally, which currents are against India, which currents are pro-India.

Rajiv Sikri

Well, as I said, thank you for inviting me to your show. As I’ve said, it’s a very complex situation. To try and do justice to it in the conversation of an hour or so is not easy.

And I’m sure I’ve missed out many things. But, you know, this book I’ve written that you have so kindly agreed to discuss is actually targeted at ordinary Indians who are not involved in foreign policy. But because matters relating to foreign policy touch our lives in so many ways, and I do sense an interest among our people in understanding the nuances of foreign policy a little better than just listening to TV debates and so forth, that I hope that this will stimulate some interest.

Now, I have offered some suggestions. They’re not solutions, they’re suggestions, in the hope that will stimulate a debate and people will start thinking and there’ll be a more informed debate and discussion among Indians on what should we do. Because foreign policy is linked very much to our domestic policy and priorities, and we need to focus a lot more on that.

Siddhartha Ahluwalia

Thank you so much, sir. It’s such a pleasure to have you on the show.

Rajiv Sikri

Thank you.